Editorial Note: Gold evokes a lot of emotions, including amongst investors. It is also impacted by the mood of the markets amongst other things. It is an interesting asset for those building a diversified portfolio. A low correlation to equities is a good thing for diversification. On the other hand, it is also hard to know what golds value will be long-term since it is not an income-producing asset. If you do decide that exposure to gold should be a deliberate part of your portfolio (not a reaction to recent prices), then the question is how to do it. Hopefully, this post will help.
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Understanding Gold
By Danielle Neziol, VP Online Distribution, BMO ETFs
Gold has reasserted itself as a relevant asset class in recent years, delivering returns that have captured investor attention and challenged long‑held assumptions about portfolio construction. After posting gains of roughly 60% in 2025, gold outperformed most major asset classes, including global equities and digital assets, and continued to advance into early 2026.1 While headline performance often drives interest, a more important question for long‑term investors is whether gold’s recent strength reflects temporary momentum or more durable structural forces.
For investors evaluating gold today, understanding why it has performed well, and how different forms of exposure behave, is essential before determining whether it belongs in a diversified portfolio.
Macroeconomic Forces Supporting Gold
Gold’s performance has historically been influenced by a distinct set of macroeconomic conditions, many of which are currently in play. One of the most enduring drivers is geopolitical uncertainty. Periods marked by military conflict, political instability, or shifting trade relationships often coincide with increased demand for assets perceived as stores of value. Gold has traditionally filled that role, particularly when confidence in governments, currencies, or financial systems is strained.
Currency dynamics have also played a meaningful role. The U.S. dollar, which serves as the global pricing mechanism for gold, has shown signs of weakening amid evolving interest‑rate expectations, tariff policy changes, and broader trade uncertainty. As the dollar loses purchasing power relative to other major currencies, gold becomes more attractive to global investors seeking an alternative store of value, reinforcing demand.
Another important consideration is diversification. Gold is a class of commodity and has a historically demonstrated low correlation to equity markets, meaning its price movements often diverge from stocks, particularly during periods of market stress. With equity valuations elevated and market leadership increasingly concentrated, many investors are revisiting diversification strategies, and gold frequently emerges as a candidate due to its differentiated risk profile.
While no asset performs well in all environments, these underlying drivers—geopolitical risk, currency pressure, and diversification demand—tend to evolve over multi‑year cycles rather than dissipate quickly. This helps explain why investor interest in gold remains elevated even after strong recent returns.

From Spot Price to Real-World Exposure
When investors refer to “the price of gold,” they are typically referencing the spot price per ounce, quoted in U.S. dollars. As of the middle of March 2026, that price stood just above US$5,000 per ounce.2 However, translating the spot price into a practical investment involves a number of structural and logistical considerations.
One traditional approach is direct ownership of physical gold in the form of bars or coins. In Canada, this often takes the form of one‑ounce Gold Maple Leaf coins purchased through precious metals dealers. While this method offers tangible ownership, it comes with meaningful frictions. Dealer spreads, currency conversion, and transaction costs can significantly raise the effective purchase price, often adding hundreds of dollars per ounce.
Beyond cost, physical gold presents operational challenges. Storage and insurance must be arranged, liquidity can be limited, and gold is inherently indivisible: selling a portion of a coin or bar is not possible. For investors accustomed to managing portfolios digitally with precise position sizing, these constraints can make physical gold an inefficient, less liquid investment vehicle.
Structural Advantages of Gold ETFs
Gold exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) have fundamentally changed how investors access gold exposure. Physical gold ETFs, like ZGLD, are designed to track the price of gold while offering the liquidity, transparency, and operational simplicity of a publicly traded security. Investors can buy or sell exposure through standard brokerage accounts, eliminating many of the logistical barriers associated with physical ownership.
Because ETF units represent fractional ownership of underlying gold holdings, investors can tailor exposure with far greater precision. Rather than committing thousands of dollars to a single coin, an investor can scale positions incrementally, rebalance as needed, and access intraday liquidity.
It is important, however, to recognize that gold ETFs are not structurally identical. Some funds rely on derivative instruments such as futures or swaps to replicate gold’s price movements. While these structures can provide exposure, they introduce counterparty risk and additional complexity. For investors seeking direct exposure to bullion, understanding whether an ETF holds fully allocated physical gold is a critical due‑diligence step.
ETFs that hold allocated physical gold in secure vaults offer a closer approximation to direct ownership, while maintaining the efficiency of a financial security. This structural distinction becomes particularly relevant during periods of market stress, when transparency and asset backing matter most.
Gold Mining Equities: Different Risk Profile
Another common avenue for gold exposure is investment in gold mining companies. While often grouped with bullion, gold equities behave very differently from physical gold. Mining companies typically have relatively fixed operating costs. When gold prices rise, revenue increases while costs remain comparatively stable, which can lead to significant margin expansion. As a result, mining stocks often exhibit leveraged exposure to the gold price.
This leverage can enhance returns in strong gold markets, but it also amplifies risk. Gold mining equities are subject to equity‑specific factors such as operational execution, geopolitical jurisdiction risk, regulatory changes, environmental considerations, and balance‑sheet leverage. Share prices can decline even when gold prices rise, particularly if company‑specific challenges emerge.
That said, the upside potential can be substantial. During 2025, many gold mining stocks generated returns well in excess of broader equity markets, reflecting the operational leverage embedded in the sector. For investors with higher risk profile, gold equities may serve as a tactical complement to bullion exposure rather than a substitute.
To mitigate single‑company risk, many investors access gold equities through diversified ETFs. By holding a basket of mining companies across regions and producers, ETFs can reduce idiosyncratic risk while preserving exposure to the sector’s growth potential.
Positioning Gold Within a Portfolio
A broad equity ETF, like ZEQT, would have some exposure to gold miners. A Canadian all-cap ETF, like ZCN typically has 1-2% exposure depending on market conditions. However, a targeted allocation to gold could serve multiple roles depending on an investor’s objectives. For some, it functions as a long‑term store of value and inflation hedge. For others, it plays a diversification role, helping reduce portfolio volatility during periods of equity market stress. In certain environments, gold and gold equities may also serve as tactical growth allocations.
As with any investment decision, the appropriate form of exposure—physical gold, gold ETFs, or mining equities—depends on risk tolerance, liquidity needs, and investment horizon. What has changed over time is accessibility. Gold is no longer an operationally complex or impractical asset for most investors. Through modern investment vehicles such as ETFs, exposure can be gained efficiently, transparently, and at a scale aligned with broader portfolio objectives—without the need to store bullion outside the financial system.
ETF Market Insights Video on Gold
Footnotes & Disclaimers
One’s risk profile is comprised of risk tolerance (i.e., willingness to accept risk) and risk capacity (i.e., ability to endure potential financial loss).
Sources: 1BMO ETFs, MSCI, March 2026. Proxies for asset class returns: The MSCI ACWI returned 22.8% in 2025 (global equities), the Purpose Bitcoin ETF BTCC.J returned -11.8% in 2025, and ZGLD returned 59.5% in 2025. 2 www.kitco.com, March 17, 2026.
Disclaimers: This communication is for information purposes only. The information contained herein is not, and should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice to any party. Particular investments and/or trading strategies should be evaluated and professional advice should be obtained with respect to any circumstance. Commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with investments in exchange-traded funds. Please read the ETF Facts or prospectus of the BMO ETFs before investing. The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all dividends or distributions and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any unitholder that would have reduced returns. Exchange-traded funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. For a summary of the risks of an investment in the BMO ETFs, please see the specific risks set out in the BMO ETF’s prospectus. BMO ETFs trade like stocks, fluctuate in market value and may trade at a discount to their net asset value, which may increase the risk of loss. Distributions are not guaranteed and are subject to change and/or elimination. The Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC or its affiliates (“SPDJI”), and has been licensed for use by the Manager. S&P®, S&P 500®, US 500, The 500, iBoxx®, iTraxx® and CDX® are trademarks of S&P Global, Inc. or its affiliates (“S&P”) and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (“Dow Jones”), and these trademarks have been licensed for use by SPDJI and sublicensed for certain purposes by the Manager. The ETF is not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by SPDJI, Dow Jones, S&P, their respective affiliates, and none of such parties make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product(s) nor do they have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of the Index. BMO ETFs are managed by BMO Asset Management Inc., an investment fund manager, a portfolio manager, and a separate legal entity from Bank of Montreal. This communication may contain links to other sites that BMO Global Asset Management (BMO GAM) does not own or operate. Any content from or links to a third-party website are not reviewed or endorsed by BMO GAM. Investors use any external websites or third-party content at their own risk. Accordingly, BMO GAM disclaims any responsibility for them. “BMO (M-bar roundel symbol)” is a registered trademark of Bank of Montreal, used under licence.





“On the other hand, it is also hard to know what golds value will be long-term since it is not an income-producing asset.”
total returns (annualized) for
SP Gold US 10 year bonds
1 +17.28 +75.36 +7.17
2 +20.28 +50 +3.18
5 +13.07 +19.7 -1.90
10 +14.17 +15.79 +1.18
15 +13.46 +8.03 +2.14
20 +10.74 +11.33 +3.01
25 +8.94 +11.72 +3.52
since 1972 SP +10.87, Gold +8.92 Bonds +6.26
if you own bonds in your portfolio, and you don’t own gold, you have to ask yourself, why?
most of those returns in bonds are close to zero after inflation. sometimes, negative. i don’t own any.
nor should anyone else. who in their right mind would lend any government money for more than
30 or 90 days?
except for the 15 year period, gold has trounced the SP on a total return basis going back those time
periods.
gold WAS money, for hundreds.. thousands of years. it hasn’t been money for the last 50 odd years.
short period of time in a long history. it’s likely to become part of the monetary order again. we’ll
still have fiat currencies, but gold will likely be used to settle trade balances.
it’s value? who knows. i’ve heard some interesting theories.
better question is how to you value your currency when governments print trillion of dollars out of thin air every year… you can’t print gold.
All of that is publicly known information. That plus information we don’t know but other market participants do is baked into the current price of gold by the market. To profit, you must predict how the future will actually unfold better than the collective market intelligence (mostly heavily influenced by the largest best resourced traders) has predicted. To me, that is hard to do.
-LD
“To profit, you must predict how the future will actually unfold …”
we’re talking about owing physical gold in a portfolio to improve returns, mitigate risk and reduce draw downs. we’re not in the fortune telling business.
i’ll say it again. owing gold in a diversified portfolio, improves returns, mitigates risk and reduces draw downs.
there’s no prediction involved. numbers don’t lie.
Gold is a diversifier. It moves differently from bonds and stocks because its price is affected by different things. That does reduce risk and mitigate drawdowns. We agree on that.
Whether it will improve returns in the future is less certain and does involve prediction. For gold to improve returns the price must go up faster than what you would otherwise have your money in. Bonds are pretty easy to beat – they are less volatile and have a low expected return. Bonds reduce volatility and mitigate risk when mixed with equity, but also lower portfolio returns in the long run (due to the opportunity cost of their lower return that you get in exchange for risk reduction).
Since physical gold does not produce income, it is not priced based on discounted future cash flows. It is priced based on what people think it will be worth in the future based on interest rates, inflation, currency moves, geopolitical risks that come together into supply vs demand. A prediction. The market takes the currently known information from all the people buying and selling gold about the probable future mix of those things and produces the current price. Will they have a better mix than the market anticipates and the price rise faster than equities in the long run? Not sure – that is fortune telling. What is currently known about the probable future is in the current price. The unknown is not. They say past returns do not predict future returns for a reason.
-LD